THE BIG QUESTION
How should public health adapt to
a +1.3°C warmer world?
Climate epidemiology
Climate change is having a growing impact on human health. A small handful of risks — such as heat, extreme weather, and some mosquito-borne diseases — are relatively well-understood, but many others are under-estimated. Our goal is to measure the total global burden of climate change, and develop the scientific, economic, and political case for transformative change to health systems.
Priority areas:
Better estimates of the total attributable global burden of disease, and of the attributable burden of vector- and water-borne diseases
Prospects for disease eradication despite climate-related disruptions
Vaccination needs and strategies for climate-sensitive diseases
Risks to physical infrastructure from extreme weather
Identifying and costing strategies for health system adaptation
Disease ecology
In the last half-century, emerging infectious diseases — particularly zoonotic and vector-borne diseases — have become the single greatest threat to global health security. We use data science and machine learning to unravel the basis of host-pathogen interactions, to make better maps of outbreak risk, and to test hypotheses about anthropogenic drivers of emergence. Lately, we’ve been doing most of this work as part of Verena, an NSF Biology Integration Institute.
Priority areas:
Global gaps in wildlife disease surveillance and risk assessment
Causal inference for environmental drivers of outbreak risk, and scenario frameworks for projection of future pandemic risks under global change
Biological determinants of host- and mosquito-arbovirus compatibility and the expansion of sylvatic cycles under climate and land use change
Climate change impacts on bats and other viral reservoirs, including geographic range shifts and exposure to climate extremes
Global biodiversity estimates for parasites and pathogens
Law and governance
The Anthropocene will push the global health security architecture to its limits. We’re developing epidemiological models to quantify the benefits of national and international policies on pandemic prevention and preparedness. Our work also explores how scientists and governments work together during outbreaks, and searches for solutions that would improve data sharing and outbreak reporting.
Priority areas:
Notification systems and conflicting incentives for outbreak reporting
Governance of pathogen genetic sequence data, and the impacts of access and benefit-sharing agreements on vaccine equity in future outbreaks
“Primary” pandemic prevention through the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, land use, wildlife trade, agricultural biosafety, and medical waste
How scientific evidence is used by governments and international organizations during public health emergencies and in treaty negotiations
Active projects
Analysis of data management capacity in regions with high infectious disease spillover risk
04/01/2023 — 07/31/2025
(NIH/NIAID 1ZIAAI001368-01; PI: Ricotta)
Prior support
Pandemic treaty travaux preparatoires
04/01/2023 — 03/31/2025
(NSF SES 2314520; PI: Phelan)
Predicting the global host-virus network from molecular foundations
09/01/2022 — 08/31/2027
(NSF DBI 2213854; PI: Carlson)
